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GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH IN ONE HUNDRED YEARS

Illustrated by countries, 1950,  2000 and estimated for 2050

Why Poverty is unlikely to be history and why solutions are unlikely to be free trade in commodities, migration, or migrant workers in industrialised countries sending back income to their homelands, and why stabilisation of populations may come too late, as  populations are already exhausting resources. The actual population figures explain why growth rates that look harmless, like 2.6% for Mali, are actually grenades.

1.The WEST	Popn 1950	2000	2050 estimate
USA	152,271,000l	282,339,000	420,081,000
Russia	101,937,000	146,732,000	110,764,000
Germany	68,375,000	82,188,000	73,607,000
UK	50,127,000	59,522,000	63,977,000
Italy	47,105,000	57,719,000	50,390,000
France	41,829,000	59,382,000	61,017,000
Spain	28,063,000	40,016,000	35,564,000
Poland	24,824,000	38,654,000	32,085,000
Turkey	21,122,000	65,667,000	86,474,000
Romania	16,311,000	22,452,000	18,678,000
Netherlands	10,114,000	15,908,000	17,334,000
Portugal	8,443,000	10,336,000	9,933,000
Australia	8,267,000	19,165,000	24,176,000
Belgium	8,639,000	10,264,000	9,883,000
Greece	7,566,000	10,559,000	10,036,000
Bulgaria	7,250,000	7,818,000	4,651,000
Serbia Montegro	7,106,000	10,850,000	9,782,000
Sweden	7,014,000	8,924,000	9,085,000
Austria	6,935,000	8,113,000	7,521,000
Bosnia&Herzegovina	2,662,000	4,035,000	3,892,000

2. AFRICA	Popn 1950	2000	2050 estimate
Nigeria	31,797,000	114,307,000	356,524,000
Egypt	21,198,000	70,492,000	126,921,000
Ethiopia	20,175,000	64,690,000	144,716,000
South Africa	13,596,000	44,066,000	33,003,000
Congo Kinshasa	13,569,000	52,022,000	183,177,000
Morocco	9,343,000	30,122,000	50,872,000
Algeria	8,893,000	30,309,000	43,984,000
Sudan	8,051,000	35,080,000	84,192,000
Kenya	6,121,000	29,986,000	64,820,000
Uganda	5,522,000	23,249,000	132,699,000
Angola	4,118,000	10,443,000	25,561,000
Mali	3,688,000	10,072,000	40,139,000
Ivory Coast	2,860,000	29,986,000	64,820,000
Zimbabwe	2,853,000	11,751,000	12,221,000
Zambia	2,553,000	10,117,000	22,188,000
Rwanda	2,539,000	7,507,000	19,935,000
Somalia	2,438,000	7,252,000	25,500,000
Burundi	2,363,000	6,621,000	22,853,000
Eritrea	1,403,000	4,350,000	10,164,000
Mauritius	481,000	1,179,000	1,451,000
Botswana	430,000	1,607,000	1,412,000

3. MIDDLE EAST	Popn 1950	2000				2050 estimate
Iran	16,357,000	65,660,000				89,691,000
Afghanistan	8,150,000	23,898,000				81,933,000
Iraq	5,163,000	22,676,000				56.361,000
Saudi Arabia	3,860,000	23,153,000				49,707,000
Israel	1,286,000	5,842,000				8,517,000
West Bank	771,000	2,020,000				5,580,000
Jordan	561,000	4,999,000				11,773,000
Gaza Strip	245,000	1,132,000				4,209,000
4. ASIA	1950	2000				estimate 2050
China	562,580,000			1,268,853,000	1,424,162,000
India	369,880,000			1,002,708,000	1,601,005,000
Japan	83,805,000			126,700,000	99,887,000
Indonesia	82,978,000			224,138,000	336,247,000
Bangladesh	45,646,000			130,407,000	279,955,000
Pakistan	39,448,000			146,343,000	294,995,000
Vietnam	23,348,000			79,060,000	107,773,000
Philippines	21,131,000			79,740,000	157,631,000
South Korea	20,846,000			47,351,000	45,224,000
Thailand	20,042,000			61,863,000	69,269,000
North Korea	9,471,000			21,648,000	26,364,000
Nepal	8,990,000			24,702,000	53,294,000
Taiwan	7,981,000			22,151,000	23,204,000
Sri Lanka	7,533,000			19,239,000	23,086,000
Cambodia	4,471,000			12,466,000	25,090,000
5. LATIN AMERICA       1950			2000			estimate 2050
Brazil	53,443,000		175,553,000			228,427,000
Mexico	28,385,000		99,927,000			147,908,000
Argentina	17,150,000		37,498,000			48,740,000
Columbia	11,592,000		39,686,000			64,534,000
Cuba	5,785,000		11,134,000			10,478,000
Haiti	3,097,000		7,306,000			18,403,000
Bolivia	2,766,000		8,153,000			13,773,000
El Salvador	1,940,000		6,123,000			12,039,000
Nicaragua	1,098,000		4,932,000			9,438,000
5.OCEANIA	1950              2000					estimate 2050
New Zealand	1,908,000	3,820,000				4,842,000
Papua Niugini	1,412,000	4,927,000				10,670,000
East Timor	436,000	847,000				1,943,000
Fiji	287,348	832,494				1,447,573
Solomon Islands	106,647	466,194				1,110,514
Samoa (not US)	81,858	179,466				170,739
Guam	59,900	155,324				242,692
Vanuatu	52,000	189,618				310,486
Tonga	45,700	102,321				188,340
Nauru	3,431	11,845				22,696

These tables are compiled from the U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. 4-26-2005

http://geography.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?zi=1/XJ&sdn=geography&zu=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.census.gov%2Fipc%2Fwww%2Fidbsum.html

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For each country, further demographic data from the Data Base include Births and deaths per 1,000 population, rate of natural increase (percent), annual rate of growth (percent),  life expectancy at birth (years), infant deaths per 1,000 live births, total fertility rate per woman,  midyear population estimates and average annual period growth rates, and  for each decade 1950 to 2050, population by age and sex.

Population pyramids. The bulges in these pyramid structures  for the youngest generations explain the explosive growth and why the population estimates for 2050 are often so high.  For example, 40% of the population of Bolivia is reported to be under 15.  However, the lack of adequate censuses means that many of the figures contain guesswork or are estimated from samples.

Notes

1. The x axes vary in size according to the population range in each graph, and so large increases can still appear minimal (eg the increases in Bangladesh and Pakistan are huge).
2. How little wars, famines, massacres and AIDS affect the growth in Africa and the Middle East – they are mere blips.More important are the birth rate, family size, the rate of infant deaths, and the distance between generations – teenage pregnancies shorten the generations so that population growth is higher.
3. Note the countries where the growth rates have stabilised or even inverted, as in Russia. E&OE. In most of these countries, projected decrease is not below 1950 population sizes.
4. These data depend upon the reliability of the data published by the US Census Bureau International Data Base. There must be instances where the estimates are more approximate than others.

The figures tie in closely with the data compiled by William Stanton (qv) except that he is pessimistic that the estimates for 2050 may be brought down by predictable Malthusian catastrophes.

Population Densities

Population densities are affected by deserts, mountains, barren soils and adverse climates.  Australia and the Sahara for example, are mostly desert and semi-desert.Egypt is mostly uninhabitable, but huge populations crowd around the Nile River.High population densities are adding to environmental problems and reducing quality of life: in growing megacities, and are increasing socio-economic problems in countries such as the Gaza Strip (3204 persons per square km) Bangladesh (865), Nauru (525), and even the Netherlands (468), and England (382) where the traditional lush countryside and woodlands of Southern England are giving way to housing.Figures from Stanton, 2003. The Rapid Growth of Human Populations 1750-2000:Histories, Consequences, Issues, Nation by Nation. NI: Multiscience Publishing Company Ltd.

Val Yule
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Some questions about the graphs

1. Are they valid?

The figures have been compiled from the US Census Bureau’s online International Date Base as at April 2005.  Where census data are unavailable, some estimates may be more guesswork than others, but the general directions are clear. If the data are related to population estimates of 1800 and earlier (eg see Stanton), the growth is shown to be even more dramatic. The total world population 250 years ago is estimated at 600 million.

The projections for 2500 are based on age-structure pyramids, not included here. In countries where 40% of the population are under 15, for example, high growth rates can be expected, unless there are some humane or inhumane factors that bring surviving family size down sharply. Immigration is also a factor in the West.

2. The relation of percentage growth rates to actual population change. The bigger the population, the larger the real size of a percentage increase.A smaller percentage increase can have a larger effect than when the population was smaller.

3. Most people do not know the different sizes of the countries of the world. Why not?

4. How population size is related to available and future resources.

Population densities seem relatively small in some countries, but rainfall, deserts, mountains and other barren areas can mean that much apparently empty space is uninhabitable bar a scientific miracle. Some breadbaskets and other sources of food are losing their fertility – eg Montana in USA. Climate change may not improve the situation.

5. The theory of demographic transition, that as people become more prosperous, they will have fewer children.However, the graphs show that the greatest population increases are in countries that are becoming poorer, in large part often because resources cannot cope with the increase.

6. The theory that an ageing population must be disastrous. Children in fact make more demands on the working population than the ageing. Unemployment is a problem with modern technology.The ageing today are healthier and able to contribute greatly to society, including in childcare. The average time of helplessness before death is two years, regardless of age. At some stage keeping a population younger – ie growing- must stop, or there is population catastrophe. Who are the interests that push this theory, and why?

7. What are the interests that benefit from continued population growth? They are a mixed lot.

8. Why is it difficult to get publicity for figures of population growth and family size – for example, during the Make Poverty History campaign?

9. The relation of struggles for resources, internal conflicts and social disorder to Darwinian stresses of unsustainable population increases. Stanton argues that humanitarian values flourished in the West over the last 250 years because the West overall was prosperous and controlled sufficient resources to have quality of life. These values decline with Darwinian struggles and fears.

10. What could be done with greater awareness that the population issue is not solved., and that 3 billion more people by 2050 is half as much again as we have already, with most of the world poor and many hungry.